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City Traders Imperium weekly market sentiment banner for 10 Aug to 16 Aug 2026, featuring a golden bull and blue bear facing off with candlestick charts and percentage moves in the background, symbolising the bullish and bearish forces shaping forex and equity markets this week.

Market NewsAugust 9, 2026

Weekly Market Sentiment – 10 AUGUST 2026

Strength Dashboard This week's weekly market sentiment shifted decisively after Friday's payroll shock wiped out rate hike expectations and sent risk assets higher. The dashboard below captures where each major currency, index, and commodity stands heading into the new trading week CURRENCIES Symbol Rating Reason GBP Weak bullish Supported by BoE hold, firm vs EUR. USD Weak Bearish NFP shock weakened rate hike bets. EUR Neutral Holding above 1.15, lacks catalyst. JPY Weak bullish Intervention support, yields dropping. AUD Weak bullish Firm above 0.70, RBA hold expected. NZD Neutral Recovering slowly, rate path unclear. CHF Weak Bullish Safe-haven bid as USD softens. DXY Weak Bearish Fell below 100 on weak jobs data. INDICES Symbol Rating Reason S&P 500 Strong bullish New all-time high at 7,758. Dow Jones Weak Bullish Up 3%, lagging tech-heavy peers. COMMODITIES Symbol Gold (XAU) Strong bullish Best week since January, above $4,340. Oil (Brent) Weak bearish Dropped from $90 to $82 on deal hopes. Geopolitical Spotlight Geo The Iran-Oman negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz dominated headlines this week. Iran's Foreign Minister said both countries are "very close" to a framework deal, while the US signalled optimism that an agreement could come within days. The strait has been effectively closed since the war began in late February, disrupting roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade.Oil prices reacted sharply. Brent crude fell from around $90 at the start of the week to roughly $82 by Friday as markets priced in the possibility that millions of barrels of Middle Eastern supply could return to global markets. That said, key sticking points remain. Iran wants to exclude US and Israeli vessels from transit and impose fees on what it calls "hostile" nations, while Washington insists on unrestricted passage.Meanwhile, the US jobs report landed on Friday with a surprise loss of 23,000 payrolls, well below the 80,000 expected. Combined with 103,000 in downward revisions to May and June, the labour market looks weaker than previously thought. Markets immediately cut the probability of a Fed rate hike in September from 67% to about 44%. CTI Outlook The Hormuz deal could break either way this week. If a framework is announced, expect oil to test $75 and dollar weakness to accelerate. If talks stall or Iran escalates, oil rebounds fast and safe-haven flows return to the USD. Watch the US CPI release on Wednesday, 12 August. A hot print would reignite rate hike speculation regardless of the weak payroll data. Forex Markets FX The dollar was the big loser this week. The DXY broke below 100 and ended around 99.60 after the payrolls shock. The 9-3 FOMC vote at the July meeting already showed internal division, and Friday's data gave dovish members fresh ammunition. Average hourly earnings slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2021.GBP held steady around 1.3490 against the dollar. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and the 150 basis point gap above the ECB rate continues to support sterling. EUR edged higher to 1.1560 as the ECB's June hike to 2.25% keeps the floor under it, but growth concerns in the eurozone are capping upside. JPY saw another volatile week. USD/JPY dropped from around 163 to 157.67 as the joint US-Japan intervention and softer Treasury yields pulled the pair lower. The yen weakened back toward 158 on Friday but remains well off its recent lows.AUD broke above 0.70 and held above it all week, closing near 0.7071. The RBA decision on Tuesday (expected hold at 4.35%) will be the next test. NZD recovered modestly to 0.5895 after the RBNZ hiked to 2.50% in July, but the kiwi remains one of the weaker performers over the past 2.5 months. CHF benefited from safe-haven demand with USD/CHF dropping to 0.8077. The SNB remains at 0.00%, making the franc a pure risk-off play. Currencies to watch USD/JPY: The pair is caught between intervention support for the yen and the Fed's hawkish lean. If CPI comes in soft, 155 is in play. A hot number could push it back toward 160.AUD/USD: The RBA decision on 11 August is the short-term catalyst. A hold is priced in, but any hawkish language from Governor Bullock could push AUD through 0.71.GBP/EUR: Sterling is trading near one-year highs around 1.16 against the euro. The rate differential favours GBP, and further eurozone weakness could see this extend. CTI Outlook The dollar's near-term direction now hinges on Wednesday's CPI print. Inflation at 3.5% or above keeps the September hike debate alive. Below 3.3% and the dollar sell-off extends. The BoJ and Japanese officials will be watching USD/JPY closely. If it moves back above 160, a fresh round of intervention is likely. The next FOMC meeting is not until 16 September, so data will do the talking. Indices Equities US equities had their best week since April. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, up 3.58% on the week. The Nasdaq surged 5.19% to 26,690.62, led by a 7%+ jump in the semiconductor ETF (SOXX). The Dow Jones added 2.96%, closing at 54,036.93.The logic is straightforward. Weak jobs data means the Fed is less likely to raise rates, and lower rates are good for equities, especially high-growth tech. Market expectations for a September hike dropped to 44% on Friday, from 67% just a week earlier. Earnings season also helped. The beat rate for Q2 hit its highest since 2021, with 77% of S&P 500 companies topping expectations. Atlassian surged 35% on strong revenue guidance, and Microchip Technology jumped nearly 14%.SpaceX rose 15.8% following the expiry of its first share lockup after the record June IPO. Airbnb gained 17.4%, the best performer on the S&P 500 for the day. CTI Outlook The S&P 500 above 7,700 is uncharted territory. If CPI on Wednesday supports the "no hike" narrative, indices have room to extend. A hot inflation print is the main risk, as it would reopen the rate hike debate and pressure valuations. Watch the Nasdaq's reaction closely. If chip stocks hold their gains, the broader rally has legs. Key level to watch: S&P 500 support at 7,600. Gold & Oil Commodities Gold had its best week since January. XAU/USD rose roughly 5% to close around $4,342, briefly touching $4,372 on Friday. Three things drove the move: falling Treasury yields after the payrolls miss, a weaker dollar, and a drop in oil prices that reduced inflation expectations. Lower yields cut the opportunity cost of holding gold, and the metal benefited directly.Gold had been stuck in a six-week range between $4,000 and $4,200 through July. The breakout above the yearly open at $4,312 is significant technically. It suggests the downtrend from the February all-time high ($5,602) may be over, at least for now.Brent crude fell sharply from nearly $90 at the start of the week to around $82 by Friday. The main driver was optimism around the Iran-Oman Hormuz deal, which could restore millions of barrels to global supply. OPEC+ also added a token 188,000 barrels per day for September. Reports that the US could lift its naval blockade once shipping resumes added further downside pressure. However, Iran targeting vessels it considers "hostile" in the strait kept a floor under prices. CTI Outlook Gold's breakout above $4,312 puts $4,400 in sight if CPI supports the soft-landing narrative. A pullback toward $4,200 is healthy and would offer re-entry. For oil, the Hormuz talks are everything. A confirmed deal could push Brent toward $75. A collapse sends it back above $90 fast. Watch for any disruption headlines over the weekend. This week Next week 〉US payrolls fell 23,000 in July, with 103,000 in downward revisions to prior months. 〉US CPI (July) on Wednesday 12 August. This is the week's main event. 〉Fed September hike odds dropped to 44%, down from 67%. 〉US PPI on Thursday 13 August. 〉S&P 500 hit a new all-time high above 7,700. Nasdaq surged 5.2%. 〉RBA rate decision on Tuesday 11 August (hold at 4.35% expected). 〉Gold broke above $4,300 for its best week since January. 〉University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday 15 August. 〉Brent crude fell from $90 to $82 on Iran-Oman Hormuz deal hopes. 〉Iran-Oman Hormuz deal could be announced at any time. GET FUNDED NOW AND BECOME A CTI TRADER START NOW Free Trial

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