Strength Dashboard
| Symbol | Rating | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Currencies | ||
| GBP | Strong Bullish | Holding gains on UK jobs beat |
| USD | Strong Bearish | DXY near 98 — multi-year lows |
| EUR | Weak Bullish | DXY near 98 — multi-year lows |
| JPY | Weak Bearish | Yen surging on safe-haven flows |
| AUD | Strong Bullish | Caught between risk-ff and China |
| NZD | Neutral | RBNZ cut expectations weigh |
| CHF | Weak Bullish | Safe-haven demand remains strong |
| DXY | Strong Bearish | Safe-haven demand remains strong |
| Indices | ||
| S&P 500 | Strong Bullish | Back above 5,400 after early dip |
| Dow Jones | Neutral | Industrial names mixed this week |
| Commodities | ||
| Gold (XAU) | Weak Bullish | Above $3,300 — recover territory |
| Oil (Brent) | Strong Bearish | OPEC+ hike fears and demands concerns |
Geopolitical Spotlight
The US-Iran conflict has defined 2026. This week it shifted to its most hopeful phase yet. Trump temporarily halted US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz, citing meaningful progress toward a one-page memorandum that would formally end hostilities and begin 30 days of structured negotiations.
Iran sent its formal response to the US proposal via Pakistani mediators on Friday. The response covers reopening the Strait, limits on its nuclear programme, and the lifting of US sanctions. At least one commercial tanker crossed the Strait during the week, the first in weeks, signalling a cautious thaw in a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets since February.
Markets reacted immediately. Oil fell sharply. Equities surged. Safe-haven currencies softened. Gold held near $4,723, reflecting the fact that the deal is not yet signed and meaningful uncertainty remains.
The Iran deal is the most important thing to watch in the coming fortnight. A signed framework would be sharply bullish for equities and bearish for oil. A breakdown sends risk assets the other way, fast. Powell’s Fed Chair term also expires May 15, adding a second layer of uncertainty to dollar positioning. Watch for any announcement from Trump or Iranian officials in the next 7 days.
Forex Markets
The dollar had another difficult week. The DXY index slipped to 97.84, extending its multi-month downtrend as risk appetite returned and markets treated the Iran ceasefire talks as a cue to reduce safe-haven dollar positions.
GBP was the standout performer. GBP/USD pushed to 1.3634, its highest level in 10 weeks, driven by broad dollar weakness rather than any UK-specific catalyst. EUR/USD traded at 1.1790, comfortably above 1.17, benefiting from the same dollar headwind. AUD led FX gains across the board, supported by risk-on sentiment and the RBA’s rate hikes to 4.10%, which keep yield differentials attractive. JPY weakened as investors stepped away from safe-haven assets – a familiar pattern when global risk appetite lifts. CHF gave back some ground but outperformed yen. NZD was relatively quiet, with the RBNZ on hold at 2.25% and no major domestic catalyst.
Currencies to watch
Near 10-week highs at 1.3634. Dollar weakness is the key driver. Worth watching whether this pair can hold its gains if Iran talks stall or break down.
The standout mover this week. Risk-on tone and RBA rate differentials keep this pair supported heading into the week ahead.
Clean uptrend backed by a soft dollar. The next key technical test sits at the 1.19 level.
Powell’s Fed Chair term expires May 15, and Warsh’s confirmation could shift rate expectations and shake dollar positioning quickly. Watch GBP/USD around the 1.37 level and EUR/USD near 1.19 for key technical reactions. The ECB meeting on June 11 is the next major FX catalyst on the calendar.
Indices
US equities had their best week in months. The Nasdaq jumped +4.5% to a new all-time high at 26,247. The S&P 500 gained +2.3% to close at 7,398, its sixth consecutive winning week and the longest streak since 2024. The Dow lagged considerably, up just +0.2% to 49,609.
Two catalysts drove the rally. First, Friday’s April jobs report beat expectations by a wide margin: nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 against a 55,000 forecast, suggesting the labour market is not buckling under the Middle East energy shock. Second, Iran deal optimism acted as a broad risk-on catalyst. Lower oil prices mean lower inflation expectations, which gives the Fed more room to ease later in the year.
The Nasdaq’s outperformance versus the Dow reflects a familiar pattern: when rate expectations ease, tech and growth stocks benefit most.
Watch for Iran deal headlines next week, as any announcement will move equities quickly and decisively. Fed commentary around the rate path under a potential new chair is also in focus. S&P 500 resistance sits near 7,500. A confirmed deal could push it higher, but expect volatility if talks collapse.
Gold & Oil
Gold (XAU/USD) had a constructive week, rising over 2% to $4,723. The move was driven by a weaker dollar, residual inflation concerns, and lingering uncertainty over whether the Iran deal will actually close. Gold remains more than 10% below its recent peak. Resistance sits near $4,775, close to the declining 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with RSI showing bearish divergence on the daily chart.
Brent crude told the opposite story, falling roughly 6% on the week to settle near $101 per barrel. The catalyst was Iran deal optimism. Markets are beginning to price in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since late February, disrupting an estimated 14 million barrels per day of global supply. If the deal is signed, the downward pressure on oil could accelerate sharply.
Oil is entirely at the mercy of the Iran negotiations right now. A signed deal would be sharply bearish for Brent, with $90 as the next key target. A breakdown sends it back toward $110 or higher. For gold, watch the $4,775 resistance zone closely. A sustained break above it opens the door to a retest of recent highs. If risk-on continues, gold may face selling pressure instead.
Week in Review
- US-Iran peace talks advanced, with Iran sending its formal response to the US proposal.
- Brent crude fell 6% to $101 on Strait of Hormuz optimism.
- Nasdaq hit a new all-time high at 26,247, up 4.5% on the week.
- US April payrolls beat forecasts at 115,000 vs a 55,000 estimate.
- GBP/USD touched a 10-week high at 1.3634.
- Powell’s term expires May 15. Warsh’s confirmation could shift rate expectations sharply.
- Any Iran-US framework signing or breakdown will move oil and equities fast.
- Strait of Hormuz developments remain the primary risk event for commodities.
- Fed speaker appearances on the rate path under potential new leadership.
- Australian and New Zealand economic releases could test AUD and NZD.
