Strength Dashboard
| Symbol | Rating | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Currencies | ||
| GBP | Weak Bearish | BoE hold and political uncertainty weigh on pound. |
| USD | Strong Bullish | Hawkish Fed and DXY near one-year highs. |
| EUR | Weak Bearish | Dollar dominance and ECB inflation concerns. |
| JPY | Strong Bearish | Wide US-Japan rate gap keeps yen under pressure. |
| AUD | Neutral | Risk-on Iran deal offsets broad dollar strength. |
| NZD | Weak Bearish | USD strength limits kiwi upside this week. |
| CHF | Neutral | Safe-haven demand offset by easing risk mood. |
| DXY | Strong Bullish | Near one-year highs, hawkish Fed confirms bid. |
| Indices | ||
| S&P 500 | Weak Bullish | Weekly gain of 0.9%, led by tech and growth. |
| Dow Jones | Weak Bullish | Hit a record close, gave back some gains later. |
| Commodities | ||
| Gold (XAU) | Weak Bearish | Third weekly decline on USD and rate fears. |
| Oil (Brent) | Strong Bearish | Iran deal reopened the Strait, oil shed 8.5%. |
Geopolitical Spotlight
The dominant story this week was the US-Iran ceasefire. After more than 100 days of conflict, the two sides signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on 19 June in Geneva. The deal ends active hostilities, reopens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping without tolls, and lifts the US naval blockade. A 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief now begins.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil. When the conflict began, commercial traffic through it dropped by more than 90%. The reopening was immediate and dramatic. Brent crude fell around 8.5% on the week. WTI dropped close to 10%. Previously stranded tankers are already beginning to exit the waterway.
The second major macro event was the Federal Reserve’s June meeting on 17 June. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.5-3.75%, but the updated dot plot told a different story. Nine committee members now back further rate hikes in 2026. The median projection for year-end rates moved from implying a cut to implying a hike. That hawkish shift rippled across the dollar, gold, and equities.
The Iran deal’s 60-day negotiation window runs through mid-August. Watch for any early breakdowns in the nuclear talks, which could quickly reverse the oil move. The PCE inflation print on 25 June is the next major catalyst. A hot reading would push rate hike expectations higher and strengthen the dollar further. The pair to watch on any PCE surprise is EUR/USD, which is sitting at a technically sensitive level.
Forex Markets
The US dollar was the clear winner this week. The DXY climbed to around 100.76, near its highest level in a year. The hawkish Fed meeting gave dollar bulls fresh ammunition, and the unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums added further support.
GBP/USD fell more than 1% over the week, trading down from a high of 1.3456 to close near 1.3212. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to hold rates at 3.75%. No surprises in the decision itself, but with the Fed now leaning toward a hike, the rate differential is shifting in the dollar’s favour.
EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1463. The eurozone is dealing with headline inflation running at 3.2% year-over-year, keeping the ECB in a cautious position. The pair is under clear pressure from broader dollar strength.
USD/JPY held around 160-161. The Bank of Japan is slowly normalising policy, but the gap between US and Japanese rates remains very wide, keeping the yen on the back foot.
AUD/USD sits around 0.7017. The Aussie got a brief lift from risk-on flows after the Iran deal, but the strong dollar environment limits upside. NZD/USD is around 0.5742, constrained by the same USD dominance. USD/CHF is around 0.8064. The franc has lost some safe-haven appeal as geopolitical tensions ease.
Currencies to watch
GBP/USDThe pound is at a key level around 1.32. The BoE-Fed rate gap narrative is building, and any further UK political uncertainty could accelerate the move lower. Watch how price behaves around 1.32 support this week.EUR/USDPCE data on 25 June is the key risk for this pair. A hot print above expectations could push EUR/USD toward 1.14 or below. Watch the pair’s reaction to any Fed speaker comments during the week.USD/JPYLevels above 160 historically draw market attention and the risk of Bank of Japan intervention. Watch for any BOJ commentary this week, and for how US Treasury yields move in response to the PCE data.
The hawkish Fed shift is the dominant FX theme right now. PCE on 25 June is the first major test of that narrative. A reading above 0.4% month-on-month would strengthen the case for a 2026 rate hike and likely push the dollar higher across the board. Watch the 1.32 level in GBP/USD and the 1.14 area in EUR/USD as near-term directional signals.
Indices
US indices had a volatile but ultimately positive week. The S&P 500 ended up around 0.9%, despite sharp swings in both directions.
The high point came Monday when the Iran ceasefire was confirmed. The S&P 500 climbed 1.65% to 7,554, the Nasdaq jumped 3.07% to 26,684, and the Dow Jones hit a record close at 51,671. Energy stocks fell hard on the oil price collapse, but tech and growth names surged. Risk-on sentiment was firmly in charge.
The Fed meeting on Wednesday flipped the mood. The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,420, the Nasdaq dropped 1.34% to 26,022, and the Dow lost 507 points. The market was rattled by the dot plot revision and by nine Fed officials backing further hikes.
Thursday brought a recovery. The S&P gained around 1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.9% as the market refocused on the geopolitical windfall and ongoing tech strength. Markets then closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, leaving the week with a positive net result. The S&P 500 remains below its early-June record of 7,609.
The 7,400 to 7,550 range in the S&P 500 is the key zone right now. PCE data on 25 June is the next major trigger. A hot inflation print could push the index back toward the lower end of that range. Conversely, a soft number could revive optimism and set up another run at the record. Watch how tech holds up early in the week as the clearest signal of broader market sentiment.
Gold & Oil
Gold (XAU/USD) fell to around $4,150, its lowest level since 11 June, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. A stronger dollar and the hawkish Fed dot plot are weighing on the metal. Gold typically moves inversely to real interest rates. With the Fed now signalling a potential hike rather than cuts, and Treasury yields firming up, the case for holding gold has weakened in the short term. The easing of geopolitical risk from the Iran deal also reduced safe-haven demand.
Brent crude fell around 8.5% to near $80 per barrel. WTI lost close to 10%, settling near $77. The driver was clear: the US-Iran ceasefire reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil. With the blockade lifted and tankers already moving, a geopolitical risk premium that had been built up over more than three months unwound in days.
Before the ceasefire, oil was trading with a substantial conflict premium priced in. Much of that has now been removed. The question for next week is whether oil finds support at current levels or continues lower as actual supply volumes return to the market.
For oil, watch the $78 to $80 Brent zone as a potential support area. If the initial ceasefire euphoria fades, supply disruption fears could return quickly if the nuclear talks stall. For gold, the 25 June PCE print is the most important near-term catalyst. A hot number would likely push XAU/USD toward the $4,100 area. Watch that level as the next key support to hold.
Week in Review
- US-Iran ceasefire signed in Geneva on 19 June, reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent oil fell 8.5% and WTI dropped close to 10% on the deal.
- Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% but dot plot flipped hawkish. A 2026 hike is now on the table.
- Stocks ended up 0.9% despite a sharp Wednesday selloff on the Fed surprise.
- Gold fell for a third consecutive week to around $4,150, pressured by USD and rates
- GBP/USD fell more than 1% to near 1.32 as the BoE held and the dollar strengthened.
- PCE inflation data on 25 June. The biggest event of the week and the key test for rate hike bets
- Watch US-Iran 60-day negotiation window for any early signals on nuclear talks.
- Oil price direction at $78-80 Brent as supply volumes from the Strait begin to increase.
- Any Fed Chair Warsh public appearances or speeches for fresh policy signals.
- BOJ commentary on USD/JPY above 160 and any intervention signals from Tokyo.
