USD: The dollar had its worst week in three months. DXY fell to 99.78, down roughly 1.5% on the week. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissents wanting a hike, but Chair Warsh gave no forward guidance. Markets now price a September hike at just 55%, down from 80% before the decision.
GBP: Sterling climbed to around $1.345, its best monthly performance since April (+1%). The BoE held at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote. Three members wanted a hike. UK inflation at 2.6% is above target, and the BoE projects it could peak at 3.2% in Q4.
EUR: The euro rallied above $1.15 after Eurozone Q2 GDP surprised at 0.4% (forecast: 0.2%) and inflation rose to 2.9%. Markets now fully price the ECB deposit rate reaching 2.75% by early 2027.
JPY: The week’s biggest mover. USD/JPY crashed from 164 to 157 after Japan and the US conducted coordinated yen-buying. The BOJ held at 1% but signalled further tightening is coming.
AUD: Steady around 0.70. Australia printed June CPI earlier in the week; the RBA is in watch-and-wait mode.
NZD: Rangebound near 0.59. No major domestic catalysts. The kiwi tracked broader risk sentiment without standing out.
CHF: The franc strengthened to around 0.807 against the dollar as safe-haven flows picked up on Middle East escalation and rising bond yields.
