Strength Dashboard
| Symbol | Rating | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Currencies | ||
| GBP | Neutral | Holding gains on UK jobs beat |
| USD | Weak bearish | DXY near 98 — multi-year lows |
| EUR | Neutral | DXY near 98 — multi-year lows |
| JPY | Weak bullish | Yen surging on safe-haven flows |
| AUD | Weak bullish | Caught between risk-ff and China |
| NZD | Weak bearish | RBNZ cut expectations weigh |
| CHF | Neutral | Safe-haven demand remains strong |
| DXY | Strong Bearish | Safe-haven demand remains strong |
| Indices | ||
| S&P 500 | Strong bullish | Back above 5,400 after early dip |
| Dow Jones | Weak bullish | Industrial names mixed this week |
| Commodities | ||
| Gold (XAU) | Weak bearish | Above $3,300 — recover territory |
| Oil (Brent) | Weak bullish | OPEC+ hike fears and demands concerns |
Geopolitical Spotlight
The US-Iran conflict is the single biggest driver in global markets right now. Hostilities began on February 28. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, cutting off roughly 20 million barrels per day of global oil supply — about 27% of all maritime petroleum trade. Brent crude is up approximately 60% from pre-war levels as a result.
A ceasefire was announced on April 8, but the Strait has not fully reopened. The US is maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports as leverage in nuclear deal negotiations. Iran has refused to reopen the shipping lanes until the blockade is lifted. Neither side has moved on this core standoff.
This week, Iran sent an updated peace proposal to Pakistani mediators on Friday. That single development pulled Brent from above $111 to around $108. Markets are pricing in some probability of a deal. But no agreement has been signed, and the Strait remains effectively closed. Any official update from the Pakistan talks will immediately move oil, equities, and safe-haven assets.
The Iranian peace proposal in Pakistan is the highest-priority catalyst to watch this week. Progress toward a deal would send Brent sharply lower and spark a broad risk-on move. A breakdown in talks reverses that entirely and pushes oil back above $111. The US Senate vote on Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair is also expected this week, which could introduce fresh dollar volatility depending on how markets read his policy leanings. Watch for official statements from the US State Department and Pakistani foreign ministry throughout the week.
Forex Markets
USD / DXY: The dollar index sits near 98.21, unable to reclaim the key 100 level for a third week running. The Fed held at 3.75% on April 29, but four officials dissented. That is the most internal disagreement since 1992, and it is keeping dollar bulls cautious heading into a heavy data week.
GBP: Sterling held near 1.3575, off 0.22% on the week. The BoE voted 8-1 to hold at 3.75%. With both the Fed and BoE in hold mode, GBP/USD remains tightly rangebound for now.
EUR: EUR/USD edged to 1.1723, down 0.14% on the week. The ECB has been on pause since early 2026, and with no ECB meeting in May, the euro is trading on macro data and geopolitical flow.
JPY: USD/JPY sits at 157.03. The yen saw a sharp mid-week rally on suspected Bank of Japan intervention, a clear signal that BoJ is actively defending against excessive yen weakness. Traders should respect the 155-160 zone.
AUD: The Aussie gained a modest 0.08% to 0.7208. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points this Tuesday, from 4.10% to 4.35%. March CPI came in at 4.6%, well above target, giving the RBA clear grounds to act.
NZD: NZD/USD slipped 0.15% to 0.5900. The RBNZ’s relatively dovish stance at 3.50% continues to weigh on the kiwi versus the Aussie and most of the G10.
CHF: EUR/CHF sits near 0.9160. The franc is finding modest safe-haven support from ongoing geopolitical tension, though partial ceasefire progress has limited the upside this week.
Currencies to watch
AUD/USD:
The RBA decision on Tuesday is the key FX event of the week. A 25bps hike paired with a hawkish statement could push AUD/USD through 0.72 and toward the 0.73 area. Watch the reaction in the minutes immediately after the announcement.
USD/JPY:
Suspected BoJ intervention near 157 has put the market on notice. A soft US jobs print on Friday, combined with ongoing intervention risk, creates a difficult backdrop for USD/JPY bulls. A break below 155 becomes relevant if dollar selling accelerates.
USD/DXY:
The April NFP is forecast at just +73,000 versus March’s +178,000. A significant miss here would be a major negative for the dollar. Watch how DXY holds or loses the 98 level going into Friday’s release.
The RBA decision Tuesday and the US NFP on Friday are the two biggest FX catalysts this week. A hawkish RBA hike combined with a soft jobs number would be a potent combination for AUD/USD bulls. Dollar bears will be watching DXY around 98; a clean break lower opens the 96 to 97 range. Watch for any BoJ commentary on yen levels, which remains the most policy-sensitive pair in the G10 right now.
Indices
US equity markets delivered a sixth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning streak since October 2024. The Nasdaq gained 1.1% to fresh record highs on May 2. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% and the Dow Jones added 0.55%. Risk appetite is firmly in the driving seat.
The standout catalyst was Apple’s blowout quarterly result. Revenue hit $143.76 billion, up 15.7% year on year and well ahead of the $138.52 billion consensus. A new $100 billion share buyback plan added further fuel. Apple jumped 3.24% in after-hours trading, dragging tech benchmarks to new highs. Earnings season broadly has been strong, and hopes that the Iran ceasefire will hold have kept buyers confident.
The counterarguments are real though. Four FOMC officials dissented last week, the most since 1992. Inflation remains above 2% driven by energy costs from the Hormuz disruption. Equities are entering this week at stretched valuations after six straight weeks of gains. Any deterioration in geopolitical news flow or a weak jobs print could accelerate a pullback from these levels.
Six consecutive weekly gains puts indices in technically stretched territory. This week’s tests are earnings from AMD, Disney, PayPal, and Palantir, alongside the US April NFP on Friday. A weak jobs number would challenge the growth narrative that has driven this rally. Watch the Nasdaq specifically: a clean hold above the May 2 record close is the bull case, while a break below last week’s opening price would signal the first signs of fatigue in the trend.
Gold & Oil
Gold (XAU/USD): Gold slipped to around $4,612 per ounce, marking a second consecutive weekly decline. The pullback is happening despite ongoing geopolitical tension. A modest dollar recovery near 98 and reduced safe-haven demand on ceasefire hopes have taken the edge off the gold bid. The $4,600 level is now the critical support. A decisive break below opens the $4,380 zone as the next major area of interest.
Brent crude: Oil was the most volatile market this week. Brent held above $111 mid-week as traders priced in a prolonged Hormuz closure, then reversed to around $108 after Iran’s Friday peace proposal reached Pakistani mediators. The structural supply deficit remains real. Brent is still up roughly 60% since hostilities began in late February. Speculative positioning is heavy on the peace-deal side, but no deal has been signed and the Strait has not reopened.
Gold needs to hold above $4,600 to keep the bullish structure intact. A break below that level could accelerate selling toward $4,380 over the coming sessions. For oil, the Iran talks are the dominant variable this week. A credible deal with Hormuz reopening could send Brent sharply toward the $90 range. A collapse in talks would push Brent back above $111 and reignite the inflation risk narrative across all asset classes. Watch diplomatic updates from Pakistan for early signals of direction.
Week in Review
- Fed held at 3.75% with four dissenters, the most since 1992.
- BoE held at 3.75%, voting 8-1 to keep rates unchanged.
- Iran peace talks in Pakistan; any breakthrough or breakdown moves oil sharply.
- Major earnings: AMD, Disney, PayPal, Pfizer, and Palantir throughout the week.
- US Senate vote on Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair expected this week.
- RBA rate decision Tuesday May 5, expected 25bps hike to 4.35%.
- US April NFP Friday May 8, forecast +73k versus March’s +178k.
- US indices posted a sixth straight weekly gain, led by Nasdaq (+1.1%).
- Apple beat estimates with $143.76bn revenue, jumping 3.24% after hours.
- Iran sent a peace proposal via Pakistan mediators, pulling Brent from $111 to $108.
