Strength Dashboard
| Symbol | Rating | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Currencies | ||
| GBP | Weak Bullish | BoE rate premium holding sterling up. |
| USD | Weak Bearish | Soft payrolls dragging DXY lower. |
| EUR | Strong Bullish | ECB June hike keeping euro bid. |
| JPY | Strong Bearish | Yen pinned near 161 despite BoJ hike. |
| AUD | Weak bullish | Hawkish RBA underpinning the Aussie. |
| NZD | Weak Bearish | Downward drift continuing for the Kiwi. |
| CHF | Strong Bullish | Safe-haven flows boosting the franc. |
| DXY | Weak Bearish | Slipped below 101 on jobs miss. |
| Indices | ||
| S&P 500 | Weak Bullish | Up 1.8% on the week, flat Friday. |
| Dow Jones | Strong Bullish | All-time high at 52,900. |
| Commodities | ||
| Gold (XAU) | Strong Bullish | $4,175, up 2.75% on safe-haven demand. |
| Oil (Brent) | Weak Bearish | Brent at $72 as Hormuz shipping recovers. |
Geopolitical Spotlight
Two stories dominated this week. First, the Strait of Hormuz continues to reopen after months of disruption from the 2026 Iran conflict. Saudi crude exports have recovered to roughly 90% of pre-war levels as more tankers successfully transit the waterway. Brent crude has collapsed from its April peak of $120 to around $72, easing inflation fears across the G10.
Second, the US June jobs report shocked markets. Nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000, well below the 115,000 consensus. Prior months were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs. The weak data sent Treasury yields lower and took the wind out of Fed rate-hike expectations.
Watch how Hormuz shipping volumes develop over the next two weeks. Any IRGC reversal on access would spike oil and hit risk assets fast. On the macro side, FOMC minutes drop this week (Wednesday) and could shift rate expectations again. Keep an eye on ISM Services PMI for confirmation of slowing momentum.
Forex Markets
The US dollar weakened after the dismal NFP print, with the DXY slipping to 100.88. Rate-hike expectations for September cooled, leaving the greenback vulnerable.
The euro pushed higher to 1.1437 against the dollar, buoyed by the ECB’s 25bp hike in June. Inflation pressures from energy costs are keeping the ECB on a tightening footing.
Sterling held firm around 1.335, supported by the Bank of England’s 3.75% rate, which remains among the highest in the G10.
The yen remains deeply weak at 161.38 per dollar, despite the Bank of Japan hiking to 1.00% in June. The rate differential with the US is still wide enough to keep carry trades alive.
The Australian dollar is holding around 0.694, supported by a hawkish RBA. The Kiwi has drifted lower to 0.571 and looks increasingly soft. The Swiss franc is one of the strongest performers, with USD/CHF at 0.803 on safe-haven demand.
Currencies to watch
EUR/USDÂ is the standout this week. The ECB hiked while US jobs data disappointed, creating a widening divergence. The pair is testing the 1.145 area and the ECB decision on July 23 is the next catalyst.
USD/JPY remains stretched above 161. Despite the BoJ’s rate hike, the yen is not finding traction. Any shift in Fed tone at the July 28-29 meeting could trigger a sharp unwind.
USD/CHFÂ at 0.803 reflects strong franc demand. Geopolitical risk and soft US data are both supporting the franc. Watch for any Hormuz escalation to extend this move.
The ECB decision on July 23 and FOMC on July 28-29 will dominate FX for the rest of the month. EUR/USD could break higher if the ECB signals further tightening while the Fed stays on hold. USD/JPY is the pair to watch for a potential sharp move if the BoJ or Fed surprise. Keep an eye on US CPI and services data for any shift in the rate-hike narrative.
Indices
It was a strong week for US equities overall. The S&P 500 gained 1.8% to close at 7,483. The Nasdaq added 2.1% on the week, though it pulled back 0.8% on Friday. ES futures are holding near 7,506.
The Dow Jones was the star, closing at a record 52,900 after breaching 52,000 for the first time on June 29. Alphabet’s addition to the index, replacing Verizon, fuelled the move. Alphabet shares jumped over 4% on its debut day.
The weak jobs report paradoxically helped equities. Traders read it as reducing the odds of a near-term rate hike, sending stock futures higher on July 2. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3.5 basis points to 4.13%.
FOMC minutes on Wednesday could reset the rate narrative. If the minutes reveal a more hawkish internal debate than markets expected, equities could pull back. Earnings season kicks off next week with the big banks. Watch the S&P 500 around the 7,500 level for confirmation of the current uptrend.
Gold & Oil
Gold surged 2.75% this week to $4,175, consolidating just below the $4,180 resistance level. The rally was driven by two forces: persistent geopolitical risk from the Hormuz situation and growing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady. A weaker dollar added fuel. The weekly range was wide, from $3,942 to $4,196, reflecting elevated volatility.
Brent crude fell to $72.12, down sharply from its April peak of $120.88. The main driver is the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi exports are back to roughly 90% of pre-war levels. This has removed much of the supply-disruption premium that sent oil soaring earlier in the year. However, the Hormuz situation remains fragile, and any reversal by the IRGC could reignite prices quickly.
Gold is sitting at a key inflection point near $4,180. A clean break above that level could open a run toward $4,200+. For oil, the Hormuz reopening is the story. If transit volumes keep recovering, Brent could test $70 support. Watch for any OPEC+ commentary or IRGC statements that could shift the supply picture overnight.
Week in Review
- US June payrolls shocked at 57,000 vs 115,000 expected, with 74,000 in downward revisions.
- Dow Jones hit an all-time high above 52,900, boosted by Alphabet joining the index.
- Gold surged 2.75% to $4,175 on safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar..
- Brent crude fell to $72 as Strait of Hormuz shipping continued to recover.
- DXY slipped below 101 as rate-hike expectations for September faded.
- FOMC minutes release (Wednesday, July 9). Could reset rate-hike expectations.
- ISM Services PMI for June. A weak reading would confirm the jobs slowdown.
- Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes. Any disruption could spike oil and gold.
- US bank earnings season begins. Results could set the tone for equity markets.
- ECB decision on July 23 is approaching. Watch for pre-meeting commentary from ECB officials.
