Strength Dashboard
| Symbol | Rating | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Currencies | ||
| GBP | Weak Bearish | NFP strength weighs, BOE June 17 key. |
| USD | Weak Bullish | NFP beat lifts DXY to 99.4 on the week. |
| EUR | Weak Bearish | EUR/USD slips to 1.156 on dollar surge. |
| JPY | Strong Bearish | USD/JPY at 160.26, BOJ holds ultra-loose. |
| AUD | Weak Bearish | Risk-off and chip selloff dent commodity pair. |
| NZD | Weak Bearish | NZD/USD at 0.5798, RBNZ in wait-and-see. |
| CHF | Strong Bullish | Iran war safe haven demand keeps franc strong. |
| DXY | Weak Bullish | On track for weekly gain after NFP shock. |
| Indices | ||
| S&P 500 | Strong Bearish | Fell 2.64% to 7,383 from record above 7,600. |
| Dow Jones | Weak Bearish | Down 695 pts but outperformed Nasdaq this week. |
| Commodities | ||
| Gold (XAU) | Strong Bearish | Down 4%, erasing all 2026 gains on NFP shock. |
| Oil (Brent) | Weak Bearish | Below $94 on Iran deal optimism, Hormuz still blocked. |
Geopolitical Spotlight
The dominant story shaping markets this week was the Iran conflict. The US-Israel strikes in late February killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4. That blockade remains largely in place, cutting off roughly 20% of global oil supply in what the IEA called the largest supply disruption in market history.
This week, contradictory signals from US-Iran negotiations drove sharp swings across assets. Optimism over a potential deal sent Brent below $94 per barrel and weighed on gold. But the IRGC continued to signal the Strait remains effectively closed, keeping uncertainty elevated. Israel-Lebanon tensions also escalated, adding a secondary pressure point on risk sentiment.
Away from geopolitics, Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report was the week’s other major shock. The US economy added 172,000 jobs against a forecast of 85,000. That triggered a violent reassessment of Fed rate expectations and sparked the Nasdaq’s worst session since April 2025.
The Iran-US negotiation track is the single biggest market catalyst over the next two weeks. A credible Strait of Hormuz reopening would hit oil hard and shift gold sharply. The week of June 16-18 brings three major central bank meetings: FOMC, BOE, and ECB. Watch Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair closely.
Forex Markets
The US dollar was the week’s clear winner. DXY climbed to around 99.4 and was on track for a solid weekly advance as of Friday’s close.
GBP/USD fell to 1.3387, down 0.26% on the week. The pound held better than most majors but could not escape the dollar’s pull. The BOE meets June 17, the key event for sterling. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1648 to 1.1560, off around 0.45%. The ECB held rates at 2.0% in April and some economists expect a 25bps hike at its June 18 meeting.
USD/JPY rose to 160.26, making the yen the weakest major this week. The BOJ keeps ultra-loose policy while the Fed holds firm at 3.5-3.75%, leaving a wide rate differential in play. AUD/USD fell to around 0.71, down roughly 1% for the week, as risk-off sentiment hit the commodity-linked currency. NZD/USD dropped to around 0.5798, off 1.2%, with the RBNZ in wait-and-see mode.
CHF was the defensive standout of the week. USD/CHF at 0.7878 reflects ongoing safe haven demand driven by the Iran conflict and Middle East instability.
Currencies to watch
USD: If US CPI next week comes in hot, DXY could push toward 100-101. The NFP shock has already repriced the rate outlook dramatically.
USD/JPY: The 160 level is psychologically significant and has previously prompted intervention talk from Tokyo. Watch for any BOJ or Ministry of Finance signals this week.
CHF: If Iran-US talks show genuine progress, safe haven unwinds could hit the franc quickly. USD/CHF could reverse sharply on any credible Hormuz deal.
The FOMC, BOE, and ECB all meet in the week of June 16-18, making it the most significant central bank week ahead. Any surprises in tone from Warsh at his first FOMC could reprice FX sharply. Keep a close eye on USD/JPY at 160 and whether Japanese officials respond with intervention signals.
Indices
US equities had a dramatic week. The S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,600 for the first time on June 2, and the Dow hit a record close of 51,561 on Thursday. Then Friday happened.
Broadcom’s Q3 AI chip guidance came in at $16 billion against analyst expectations of $17.2 billion. Broadcom fell 14%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index suffered its worst single-day drop since March 2020, wiping over $1 trillion in market value. The Nasdaq closed at 25,709, down 4.18%, its worst session since April 2025.
The S&P 500 fell 2.64% to 7,383. The Dow held better, falling 695 points to 50,866, reflecting lower tech exposure. Higher Treasury yields post-NFP added extra pressure across rate-sensitive equities.
Watch whether the Nasdaq finds support around 25,500-26,000 this week. The chip selloff was partly fundamental (Broadcom’s guidance miss) and partly technical, with the sector heavily overbought. The FOMC on June 16-17 is the next major catalyst for equities. A hawkish Warsh tone would extend pressure on tech. Watch this week’s close as the key directional indicator.
Gold & Oil
Gold had its worst week of 2026, falling nearly 4% to around $4,329. The May NFP shock drove Treasury yields sharply higher and lifted the dollar, creating a direct headwind for the non-yielding metal. Markets now price a possible Fed rate hike by year-end rather than cuts, which fundamentally changes the calculus for gold. Before the NFP print, gold was trading around $4,475, supported by Iran war safe haven flows. The jobs data erased that premium in a single session.
Brent crude dipped below $94 per barrel on Friday as optimism around US-Iran ceasefire talks offset supply disruption fears. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but ships are moving through designated routes at increased cost. Earlier in the conflict, Brent spiked above $120. The current level reflects a market balancing ongoing disruption against potential resolution.
Gold’s $4,300 level is the key support area this week. A hold there could attract buyers for a bounce toward $4,450-4,500. A break below $4,300 opens a move toward $4,200. For oil, any concrete Hormuz deal is an immediate bearish catalyst. Watch US-Iran negotiation language closely. The FOMC on June 16-17 is also key for gold’s next directional move.
Week in Review
- US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the 85,000 forecast.
- Nasdaq fell 4.18% Friday, worst day since April 2025, on Broadcom chip guidance miss.
- S&P 500 closed its ninth consecutive weekly gain, finishing near its all-time high at 7,580.
- S&P 500 briefly hit a record above 7,600 before reversing sharply lower by Friday.
- Iran-US negotiations sent mixed signals, keeping Brent crude in the $94-97 range.
- US CPI for May, expected around June 11, is the key input for the FOMC decision.
- Iran-US negotiations continue. Any Hormuz breakthrough is the biggest single market mover.
- Nasdaq at support around 25,500-26,000. Watch chip stocks for stabilisation or further falls.
- USD/JPY at 160. Watch for Bank of Japan or Ministry of Finance intervention signals.
- Fed speakers before June 16-17 blackout for hints on Warsh’s direction.
